As the U.S. Census Bureau reported on Aug. 17, retail sales fell by 1.1 percent during July compared to the revised June retail sales figures. This is in contrast to an increase of 20.6 percent between May and July and a 15.8 percent increase for the year-over-year comparison to 2020 for the month of July alone. The National Bureau of Statistics of China released retail sales figures for July on a year-over-year basis. The agency reported an increase of 8.5 percent for the month, missing the 11.5 percent growth target that many predicted, and lower than the 12.1 percent growth in June. The decrease wasRead More →

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, the June price of $73 per barrel for Brent Crude Oil was up by $5 per barrel over May. With more vaccinations being rolled out, uncertainty over OPEC+’s production moves, and a reduction in worldwide oil availability, the outlook for oil prices seems upward. If the price of energy – especially oil – keeps increasing, will it halt the improving economy in its tracks? As part of the commodity boom, crude oil is not immune from the rapid rise, creating an increase in inflation that’s subject to contention of being “transitory” or longer-term. Based onRead More →

The June 16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting Q&A session with Chairman Jay Powell and recent comments from The Fed have signaled two potential inflation rate hikes in 2023. Two days later, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, signaled there could be a rate hike as soon as 2022. With these mixed signals and upcoming FOMC meetings, how might inflation and the markets play out in 2021? Inflation and the Dollar One explanation for inflation is that there are too many dollars chasing too few goods – or more simply put, things will cost more over time. Say youRead More →

With the economy reopening and more Americans receiving COVID-19 vaccinations, the economy is expected to be operating on all cylinders. However, some economists and market analysts are afraid The Federal Reserve may create a “taper tantrum” if and when it starts to reduce its purchase of U.S. Treasury debt. The Fed’s current track of purchasing $120 billion of U.S. Treasury debt every month has kept the 10-year yield moderated. However, if The Fed signals fewer monthly purchases from current levels, recent history has already seen higher 10-year yields and increased market volatility. As the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis outlines, the Federal Open MarketRead More →

Based on data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the spread between the 10-year and two-year constant maturity Treasury rates increased by 66 basis points – from 0.48 percent in July 2020 to 1.14 percent by February 2021. Due to the Federal Reserve’s open market operations, two-year notes have fallen to near 0 percent, while the 10-year yield has risen higher. Experienced investors and financial institutions such as the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis would see this change in the slope of the yield curve of the two U.S. Treasury rates and call it a steepening yield curve. This recent widening spreadRead More →

As the January 2021 World Bank Pink Sheet documented, prices increased month-over-month from November 2020 to December 2020. Highlights include the price of oil jumping by 15 percent. The cost of fertilizer jumped 2.2 percent, grains increased by 3.8 percent and iron ore jumped by 25 percent. While there’s been no official “commodity super-cycle,” according to economists or financial analysts, the trend certainly shows commodity prices increasing. 2020 caught the world off-guard with the coronavirus pandemic, sending the price of oil negative. According to Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, on April 20, 2020, “the prompt contract price” or how much a barrel ofRead More →

Now that the Keystone XL pipeline is being shut down and southern parts of the United States are experiencing extremely cold weather, how will increasing oil prices impact the economy as the COVID-19 vaccine is being rolled out? With West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closing at $58.22 per barrel on Feb. 11, 2021, and likely higher due to the cold snap in the United States, the price of oil is expected to impact the U.S. and global economy. Consumer Demand One of the major impacts of increasing oil prices is the rising price of gasoline. With higher oil prices rippling throughout the economy, understanding howRead More →

About four in 10 Americans (41 percent) look positively toward single-party control at the national level, according to an October 2020 Gallup annual governance survey. This is compared to 23 percent of respondents desiring multiparty control. Breaking it down by party, 43 percent of Democrats want single-party rule, while 52 percent of Republicans desire single-party governance. One notable finding is that, looking back to 2002, 32 percent preferred single-party control when it comes to independents. This was the highest-ranking over the past 18 years. As the Brookings Institution points out, now that Jon Ossoff and the Rev. Raphael Warnock are U.S. Senators, the U.S. SenateRead More →

The Obama and Trump administrations couldn’t have had a more different approach when it came to U.S. relations with China. As the Institute for China-America Studies (ICAS) explains, under the Obama administration, the United States favored a trade and investment approach when dealing with China, while the Trump administration had a national security focus. The ICAS believes the Biden administration will address trade and economic imbalances through a modified approach, including reducing tariffs on imported Chinese goods over time to decrease inflation for American consumers. Another example is maintaining pressure on China to cut government subsidies for competing industries, currency games, and exporting products toRead More →

According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), the spread of the coronavirus will impact the world’s economy. Whether it’s a Reuter’s poll from economic experts projecting growth in China slowing to 4.5 percent in Q1 of 2020, in contrast to China’s Q4 GDP of 6 percent; or the International Energy Agency (IEA) saying world desire for oil will be lower due to the coronavirus; or global companies reducing or temporarily closing their Chinese factories, change is on its way. Based on this data, what does the global economic outlook entail? In order to understand how the coronavirus might impact global economies, it’s important to putRead More →